Inverse modeling to estimate LNAPL plume release timing

Methodologies are presented for dating releases of light nonaqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) using an inverse modeling approach with simple analytical models. Models for LNAPL plume migration are presented to predict LNAPL plume velocity in the unsaturated and saturated zones as a function of basic soil and fluid properties. A relative mobility factor is introduced for LNAPL movement at the water table that depends primarily on the van Genuchten n parameter (related to the breadth of the soil pore size distribution) and the magnitude of water table fluctuations. Estimated LNAPL plume velocities compare reasonably with more rigorous numerical models, which may be used in cases where data availability warrant the greater effort entailed.Two methods of estimating release timing and its uncertainty are investigated. A direct estimation method is described that determines travel time for a single observed travel distance based on estimated soil and fluid properties. Release date uncertainty may be determined using the first order (FO) or Monte Carlo (MC) methods. The second method for estimating release date involves nonlinear parameter estimation utilizing distance vs. time measurements and other data.A case study is presented for a field site where independent estimates of release timing were obtained from a numerical modeling analysis. Release timing estimates based on direct inversion of the analytical timing model agree well with the numerical analysis. Results for a second field site indicate that release date confidence limits estimated by the FO method, assuming log-normally distributed travel times, are close to values determined by the MC method, which makes no assumption regarding the form of the travel time probability distribution.Results for a hypothetical problem indicate that LNAPL velocity and travel time may be accurately estimated if sufficient data on travel distance vs. time are available. Incorporating prior information on relevant soil and fluid properties into the objective function reduces the uncertainty in release date if prior estimates are accurate. However, biased prior estimates may lead to over- or underestimation of release date uncertainty. Simultaneous estimation of soil and fluid properties and release date is possible if prior information is available to condition the parameter estimates.     

地下水与优势结构面对库岸滑坡形成的联合效应——以龙羊峡近坝库岸滑坡为例

为了深入研究近坝库岸滑坡的形成机理,首先分析了区域地下水的溶蚀作用和动水压力作用,又运用综合评分法确定出了对滑坡形成有利的优势结构面,发现区域滑坡滑带的形成是地下水与优势结构面长期联合作用的结果。以龙羊峡滑坡为例,揭示了半成岩湖相地层中滑坡滑带独特的三段式结构特征,验证了地下水与优势结构面的联合效应对近坝库岸滑坡形成的控制作用。     

板料成形数值模拟的逆算法研究

依据理想形变理论 ,研究开发了冲压成形过程模拟的有限元逆算法 ,并考虑了成形中的压边力 ,拉延筋等工艺条件 ,实现了计算机程序。通过实例的计算表明此方法能够快速分析成形工件中的变形情况 ,可用于设计前期阶段评价零件的成形性能     

基于现场测试的斜拉桥有限元模型修正

由于多年使用,桥的结构材料等都已经发生变化,因此在研究桥的当前工作状态时,必须依照现场测试结果,将初始模型修正为符合现阶段实际情况的有限元模型。本文以黄河胜利大桥为工程背景,根据设计资料建立了该桥初始有限元模型,用ANSYS通用软件开发了索力修正程序,该程序通过调整拉索的初始应变和附加质量块,使模型索力与设计索力之间误差在5%以内。计算发现,有限元模型中的施工顺序对成桥状态有着很大影响,应通过单元生死技术进行施工模拟。本文以各级加载工况下挠度、索力的变化情况作为控制目标,最终建立了能够反映加载工况下挠度变化、索力变化的黄河胜利大桥基准有限元模型,为今后监测桥的索力变化情况进而了解整座桥的工作状态奠定了基础。     

区域环境司法协作的实践表征及发展理路探析

环境司法协作是促进区域、流域环境整体性治理的重要保障。但当前相关研究侧重某个重点区域、流域的环境司法协作分析，亟待对京津冀、长三角、成渝、长江、黄河等区域、流域环境司法协作实践进行全面的考察和规范分析。可以依据协作目的、内容、空间，将多元化的环境司法协作样态分为政策回应型协作与程序便利型协作、纵向协作与横向协作、省（区、市）内协作与跨省协作等。针对规范性、结构性、机制性等困境，区域环境司法协作需要从纵向协作迈向纵横协作结合、从协议型协作迈向立法型协作、从低位阶协作迈向高位阶协作。未来还需要加强区域、流域、陆海统筹下的立法协同，探索“共享法庭”及其配套治理体系与能力的纳入与应用，推动大数据、区块链、人工智能等新兴技术与司法的深度融合，从而对区域环境司法协作进行全面的规范性补强、结构性调适、协同配合机制的建构及数字化司法转型。     

Redesigning harvest strategies for sustainable fishery management in the face of extreme environmental variability

Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental-population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61)  than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.     

对环境监测与环境监理运作秩序的思考

阐述了环境监测与环境管理监理之间的关系，指出建立科学合理的环境监测与环境监理运作秩序，对充分发挥各自作用，推动整个环境保护工作向科学化，规范化，法制化是具有积极意义，结合实践，提出了建立环境监测与环境监理运作秩序的思路。     

地表水环境质量大数据分析技术路线探讨

简述了地表水环境质量大数据分析的概念和意义,探讨了基于因素识别、数据选择、数据收集、数据整理、关联分析、模型验证和结果应用流程的地表水环境质量大数据分析技术路线,列举了4种典型的应用示例。提出,应建立数据共享机制,建立大数据分析工作程序,开发大数据分析应用软件,培养大数据分析技术人才。     

论环境刑事诉讼上诉期间生态修复行为的法律定性

环境刑事诉讼上诉期间的生态环境修复行为逐渐被一些地方法院在二审程序中作为从宽减刑的情节考察。虽然此举有益于激励环境刑事被告人积极履行环境恢复义务,然则在未有明文规定的先决条件下贸然将其纳入从宽量刑考量,也许会打破传统二审救济纠错的应然功能设计,使得环境刑事诉讼二审功能的实现存在矛盾偏差。由是对于上诉期间发生的生态修复行为的法律定性,应明确归属于判决后刑罚执行阶段的减刑情节予以考量,并且为配合化解此类矛盾,我国须及时制定相应的专门法规、适用原则和配套制度措施,从而最大限度发挥生态修复行为在环境刑事诉讼中的效用。     

高温下钢及组合钢节点有限元建模及基于构件的分析方法(英文)

欧洲规范EC3 Part 1-1第5章[1]允许工程师使用一些先进的有限元分析软件来分析和设计钢结构,如线弹性、刚塑性以及二阶弹塑性整体分析。这3种极不相同的分析方法,能够用于简支、半连续以及连续节点模型中[2]。节点模型根据刚度的不同,可分为铰接、半刚性和刚性模型;按照强度的不同,可分为铰接、部分强度和全强度模型。尽管大多数的工程问题仅仅要求进行线弹性分析,但仍有一些特殊结构可能要求采用高级分析以降低施工成本,例如底层无支撑钢框架结构。在这种结构中,采用半连续节点(具有半刚度和部分强度特性)进行框架分析,会显著增强结构抵抗名义水平荷载、风荷载、整体缺陷、地震作用时的抗侧刚度和强度,因此在控制的水平荷载下计算的横向侧移可能在EC3允许的范围内。在基于性能的抗火设计中,结构抗火工程师可能想利用钢节点潜在的刚度和强度,尤其是有端板节点的钢结构,这是一种最常见的钢结构施工形式。端板可以是部分深度的,或者是延伸端板,涵盖了名义铰接、半刚性和完全刚性节点模型。本文给出了端板节点高温性能研究的一系列数值分析结果;应用基于构件的方法,建立了这些节点在高温下的力学反应计算公式,以及梁腹板剪应力分量、连接处的拉应力和压应力区域的力学模型。基于构件的方法能够考虑钢节点的热约束效应。对已有钢端板节点试验进行了有限元模拟和基于构件的分析表明,2种方法的分析结果与试验结果的偏差都是可接受的,包括热约束效应。